Actuarial Review of the Social Insurance Fund as at 31 December 2005


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2007

Actuarial Review of the Social Insurance Fund as at 31 December 2005

BAILE ÁTHA CLIATH
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© Government of Ireland 2007

(PRN. A7/1265)

Réamhfhocal

Tá an-áthas orm fáilte a chur roimhe seo, Athbhreithniú Achtúireach 2005 den Chiste Árachais Sóisialta.

Is píosa oibre fíor-luachmhar é an foilseachán seo a chuirfidh go mór le forbairt leanúnach polasaí árachais sóisialta in Éirinn.

Leagann an tAthbhreithniú Achtúireach amach staid an Chiste Árachais Sóisialta amhail ag 31 Nollaig, 2005, agus déantar nuashonrú ar an Athbhreithniú a rinneadh cúig bliana ó shin – go háirithe maidir le tionchar na n-athruithe déimeagrafacha agus polasaí le déanaí. Soláthraíonn sé creatlach inar féidir measúnú a dhéanamh ar dhúshláin dóchúla na todhchaí atá os comhair an Ciste.

Feidhmíonn córas árachais sóisialta na hÉireann, a bunaíodh ar dtús i 1953, trí an gCiste Árachais Sóisialta seo. Íoctar ranníocaíochtaí árachais sóisialta (nó ÁSPC) isteach sa Chiste a dhéanann maoiniú ar réimse leathan íocaíochtaí agus tairbhe faighte ag na glúine d’oibrithe in Éirinn astu – sochair lena n-áirítear máithreachais, iarrthóra poist, sochar cúramóra nó breoiteachta sealadaigh, pinsin agus íocaíochtaí eile. Tá an Ciste Árachais Sóisialta tar éis a bheith ina léiriú dáiríre ar dhlúthpháirtíocht eatarthu siúd ag obair agus iad siúd atá imithe ar scor, breoite no dífhostaithe.

Ar feadh an chuid is mó den am ó bhunú an Chiste, tá an Státchiste tar éis ranníocaíocht a dhéanamh chuig an gCiste chun freastal ar an mbearna idir ioncam ranníocaíochta agus caiteachas sochair. Mar sin féin, ó 1996, mar thoradh ar fheidhmíocht eacnamaíoch láidir tá ranníocaíochtaí tar éis caiteachas a shárú agus tá farasbarr sa Chiste. Mar sin féin, ní chiallaíonn sé seo nach gcuirfidh an Státchiste leis an gCiste sa todhchaí. Déanann athbhreithniúcháin dá leithéid seo forbairt ar ár dtuiscint de na himpleachtaí atá ag athrú sóisialta agus eacnamaíoch ar an gCiste Árachais Sóisialta agus, dá réir sin, soláthrófar príomh-bhunús dár gcuid iarrachtaí chun forbairt a dhéanamh ar chóras cosanta sóisialta na hÉireann sna blianta atá amach romhainn.

Martin Cullen, T.D.

Aire Gnóthaí Sóisialacha agus Teaghlaigh

FOREWORD

I am delighted to welcome this, the 2005 Actuarial Review of the Social Insurance Fund.

This publication is a valuable piece of work that will contribute to the ongoing development of social insurance policy in Ireland. The Actuarial Review sets out the position of the Social Insurance Fund as at 31 December, 2005, and updates the previous Review undertaken five years ago – particularly in relation to the impact of recent policy and demographic changes. It provides a framework within which the likely future challenges facing the Fund can be estimated.

First established in 1953, Ireland's social insurance system operates through this Social Insurance Fund. Social insurance (or PRSI) contributions are paid into the Fund which finances a broad range of payments that generations of workers in Ireland have benefited from – benefits including maternity, jobseeker's, carer's benefit or temporary illness; pensions and other payments. The Social Insurance Fund has been a genuine demonstration of solidarity between those at work and those who are retired, ill or unemployed.

For most of the time since the Fund's establishment, the Exchequer has made a contribution to the Fund to meet the shortfall between contribution income and benefit expenditure. However, since 1996, strong economic performance has resulted in contributions exceeding expenditure and the Fund going into surplus. However, this does not mean that the Exchequer will not contribute to the Fund in the future. Reviews such as this one develop our understanding of the implications of social and economic change for the Social Insurance Fund and, as such, will provide a key basis for our efforts to develop the Irish social protection system over the coming years.

Martin Cullen, T.D.

Minister for Social and Family Affairs.

Note from Consultants

8 June, 2007

To: The Minister for Social and Family Affairs

Subject: 2005 Actuarial Review of the Social Insurance Fund.

We have pleasure in enclosing our report setting out our findings on the 2005 Actuarial Review of the Social Insurance Fund.

During the course of this review, we received considerable input and support from many individuals from your own Department, the Department of Finance, the Central Statistics Office and the Central Record Service. We want to thank all who have helped us throughout.

We also wish to acknowledge the significant contribution made in setting the economic assumptions by Mr. Jim Power. Mr. Power's input was invaluable to us.

Finally, we wish to thank the members of the Steering Committee for their guidance and advice throughout the review.

Anne Kershaw, F.S.A.I.

Liam Quigley, F.S.A.I.

 

CONTENTS

MINISTER'S FOREWORD

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY & CONCLUSIONS

SECTION 1: Introduction

SECTION 2: Recent Developments

SECTION 3: Data Used for the Review

SECTION 4: Methodology and Assumptions

SECTION 5: The Future Population and Labour Force of Ireland

SECTION 6: Core Results of the Review

SECTION 7: Supplementary Projections

SECTION 8: Value-for-Money Projections

APPENDICES

APPENDIX A: Summary of Benefits & Contributions of the Fund

APPENDIX B: Summary of Accounts Between 1st January, 2001, and 31st December, 2005

APPENDIX C: Summary of Key Data Provided for the Review

APPENDIX D: Population and Labour Force Projections

APPENDIX E: Fund Projections

APPENDIX F: Sensitivity Analysis

APPENDIX G: Project Steering Committee

Last modified:13/10/2008
 

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